This project conducted a comprehensive analysis of the readiness and profitability of Kenyan avocado, red chili, and cassava value chains for export to China. The research reveals that Kenya’s agricultural exports are increasingly driven by smallholder farms, which supply more than 70% of the country’s output. Avocado, chili, and cassava are high-potential crops with growing demand in China, but their supply chains face key bottlenecks including limited post-harvest infrastructure, certification hurdles, and quality inconsistency, especially for small-scale producers. Avocado exports benefit from structured value chains and investments in compliance but still face logistical challenges and costly standards. Chili, mainly grown in Kilifi, Machakos, and Tana River, is experiencing a shift toward contract farming, which enhances processor profitability but faces pesticide residue and processing gaps.
Cassava, a staple for millions and widely grown in Kisumu, Homabay, and Kilifi, has exceptional ROI for large-scale producers but is mostly sold domestically due to weak export channels and inadequate processing. The study includes extensive field interviews and proposes that investment in modern cold chain, farmer training in certification, mechanization, and aggregation centers are key to expanding market access and export readiness, especially for high-value channels like China. Cross-sector solutions, including partnerships and digitization, are recommended to scale compliance systems and inclusively boost rural incomes.
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