The Possible Impact of Trump 2.0 on Africa
On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump returns at the helm of American power.
We are avid witnesses of this historic time where Trump becomes the second president in U.S. history to serve non-consecutive terms, following President Grover Cleveland from the late 1800s.
During our almost two decades of business advisory work on the African continent, there has never been such an exciting, yet unpredictable nuance of U.S. foreign policies directed towards Africa.
We are equally pondering the big question. How will Trump 2.0 impact Africa? How will the current relationship between the U.S. and the African continent advance under the Trump 2.0 administration?
During Donald Trump’s first term, we saw that Africa did not feature as a major foreign policy priority. Our sentiment extends that this could remain in Trump’s second term.
In a possible play of devil’s advocate in the midst of this fear. Could this be an opportunity for Africa to steer forward with new perspectives and less dependency on the U.S.? Africa could decide to stand strong to harness and develop her own resources to become a noticeable global economic player.
In spite of the pros and cons expressed by Africa’s leadership, upon the announcement of Donald Trump’s presidency win, Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, said, “Zimbabwe stands ready to work with you”; and Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu expressed hope that Trump’s second term would bring “reciprocal economic and development partnerships between Africa and the United States”.
Although the consequences of the Trump 2.0 could remain unclear for quite some time, there are some critical and tantalising advancements from Trump’s first term African policies that trend into the Trump 2.0 administration sparking conversations, observations and action.
Trump’s "America First" Mantra
We anticipate that Trump’s second term will significantly continue to cause waves of ambiguity across trade, foreign aid, military partnerships, immigration, and diplomacy policies. But our experience in Africa shows that this continent has the potential to pivot, adjust and exchange new terms with the U.S. Trump administration.
The African leadership representative in the political and economic sectors are vital players that should come together to implore the African case before the Trump 2.0 administration. Africa needs its advocates to create innovative solutions and re-negotiate a valuable proposition of this rich and diverse continent, along with the fact she is a growing global player that cannot to be ignored.
Critical Trump 2.0. Policies that Affect Africa
Trade Policies
Trump’s focus on U.S. domestic priorities may reduce incentives for African trade. We are attentive to the forthcoming decision regarding the renewal of The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
AGOA currently offers African countries duty-free access to the U.S. but is set to expire in September 2025. Departing from Trump’s previous administration, this current free trade deal could possibly be abandoned in favour of transactional bilateral deals with individual states.
We are aware of Trump’s interest in oil and African nations such as, Nigeria and Angola, the major oil producing nations will likely remain the focus of U.S. trade policy.
China’s increased growth and influence in Africa bothers Trump. So, we argue that although Trump is not keen on AGOA, his ambition to counter China’s growing economic influence in Africa may sway his administration to maintain some level of partnership with Africa.
Strategic Partnerships
Trump is not a multilateralist, hence, we anticipate that Trump 2.0 could prioritise bilateral agreements.
Washington may reshape its approach to Africa by strengthening ties with key countries critical to its strategic interests in security and peace and regional influence, such as Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, and Egypt.
Foreign Aid Cuts
Africa gets most of its aid from the U.S. Trump’s “America First” Mantra could greatly decrease aid and potentially impact African nations dependent on programs like PEPFAR, a US initiative that has poured huge sums into fighting HIV in Africa.
A greater focus on private investment over traditional aid could reshape U.S.-Africa engagement going forward.
Our stance is that the future of U.S.-Africa relations regarding development aid remains unclear under the new administration, however, this threat poses a chance for Africa to scrutinise its reliance on U.S. aid, and research models on how to become more self-reliant.
Military Partnerships and Base Reductions
During Trump’s first term, we saw that the U.S. maintained a robust counterterrorism presence in Africa, particularly in Sahel and Horn of Africa. Strengthened isolationist policies might lead to downsizing U.S. military bases or operations, particularly in regions like the Sahel, depending on broader geopolitical strategies.
However, we could see a new focus under Trump 2.0, where there could be increased military support for regional counterterrorism initiatives. Washington’s key allies could include Nigeria and Kenya, but without a military base on the ground.
Immigration Policies
There is a nervousness in the air regarding Trump’s strict immigration policies. We envisage the travel bans, tightening of borders and deporting of illegal immigrants against African nations will continue or expand in his second term.
Another sensitive area of concern is that African diaspora communities in the U.S. could encounter difficulties with family reunification and visa access.
Foreign Aid Cuts
Trump’s skepticism toward international institutions like the UN and WHO may see less multilateral cooperation.
The reduced multilateral engagement could limit Africa’s collaboration with the U.S. on global issues like pandemics or climate change.
Trump does not believe that climate change is a real threat. We saw his reproach from the Paris Agreement as a clear sign.
His return for a second term could mean a lack of support for global climate action. This could prove detrimental to vulnerable African countries experiencing environmental challenges such as droughts and desertification.
Trump 2.0 could intensify efforts to counter China’s influence in Africa. This could comprise of potential U.S. investments or partnerships that compete with Chinese infrastructure and economic initiatives in Africa.
There is rumble on whether Trump can sustain the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, a G7 initiative to drive sustainable and transparent investment in quality infrastructure around the world.
African countries impacted include Kenya, Sierra Leone and Mozambique who have benefited from the US-led G7 digital infrastructure projects, and Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia who stand to benefit from the G7-funded construction of the new 800km rail line connecting these countries, the first open-access transcontinental rail network in Africa.
Africa is Preparing for Trump 2.0
We understand that the impact of Trump’s second term on Africa is complex and volatile. His policies affecting trade, aid, security cooperation, and climate action trigger debate and criticism, particularly concerning their long-term implications for Africa’s development and global relations.
As advocates of the African continent, we believe that among the unknowns and potential disruptions, Africa has the competency to adapt and evolve in the geopolitical and economic landscape and confront the Trump 2.0 with boldness for future success.
AMENA AFRICA an Advocate of Africa
The impact of Trump 2.0 on Africa is crucial for companies operating in or looking to enter the African market.
Business opportunities in Africa continue to grow, offering vast potential.
We are an active, on-the-ground team based in Kenya, with regional offices in Nigeria, Ghana, and South Africa.
Our goal is to provide strategic partnerships to help businesses establish a presence and tap into the African continent.
Let’s talk Africa first!